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11 Mar 2011

Uncertainty in Group B: Which 4 teams will qualify for quarterfinals?

Group B has now become quite unpredictable after Bangladesh defeated England today. Still it is not 100% possible to say which 4 teams would make to the quarterfinals, though India and West Indies look to be in good position to qualify. England's chance looks timid after today's match, and they have only one match left to make any change in the point table. 

India is at the top of the point table, and they have yet to play two matches. However, they must be aware that the upcoming matches are against the tougher opponents. If India can win tomorrow's match against South Africa, the result of their match against West Indies will only be important to decide who they are going to face in the quarterfinal. South Africa is currently at 4th position, but they still have 3 matches to go. They will face India, Bangladesh and Ireland next, and they should make sure to win atleast two matches if they don't want to leave their fate on run rate comparison. 

Ireland have probably closed the door to quarterfinal after losing to West Indies today. If only they had won their closed match against Bangladesh, the thing could have been much easier for them. The main problem for them is their poor runrate (-0.444). They can expect a win against the Dutch side, but it won't be enough for taking them to the next stage if they lose to South Africa in their final group encounter. 

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Netherlands could not expect  any miracle to get them through. With the huge negative runrate (-2.728) and 0 point, winning their next two matches will also not be sufficient. They should just start packing their bags and cherish their personal achievements (especially Ryan Ten Doeschate's).

West Indies have enjoyed good world cup so far, but they know they have not made to quarterfinal yet. Both India and England (??) are great teams and they should get atleast one win to assure their mobility. England would be in great pressure to win against West Indies, and thus this match can be considered a "do or die" one for them.  Bangladesh have certainly unblock the road to quarterfinal by defeating England in the nailbiting finish. With 4 points at the moment, they might need victory in remaining two matches; else, they could hope West Indies defeat England. In that condition, one win would be enough for them. 

So, in conclusion, there can be any 4 teams that will make to the quarterfinals from Group B. India and West Indies need only one win more to secure their positions. South Africa need to win 2 out of their 3 matches for easy ride, while one win may be enough for Bangladesh to qualify if England lose their final match against West Indies. Ireland's chance is certainly low but they are still in the fight. They will prove their chances if they can snatch victories in their remaining matches, though the chance is low. The battles in Group B have become more interesting. Let's see who will finally make it. 

Do you have any contrary ideas? Please, leave comment if you think the analysis is wrong in some way. 

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